Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis and Simulation (MSPAS) Model with Driving Factors for Land Cover Change and Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study of Nepal

Abstract

In pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), land cover change (LCC) has been utilized to explore different dynamic processes such as farmland abandonment and urban expansion. The study proposed a multi-scale spatiotemporal pattern analysis and simulation (MSPAS) model with driving factors for SDGs. With population information from the census, multi-scale analysis criteria were designed using the combination of administrative and regional divisions, i.e., district, province, nation and ecological region. Contribution and correlation of LCC or population were quantified between multiple scales. Different kinds of driving factors were explored in the pattern analysis and then utilized for the definition of adaptive land suitability rules using the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) simulation. As a case study of the MSPAS model, Nepal entered into a new era by the establishment of a Federal Republic in 2015. The model focused on four specific land cover classes of urban, farmland, forest and grassland to explore the pattern of Nepal’s LCC from 2016 to 2019. The result demonstrated the performance of the MSPAS model. The spatiotemporal pattern had consistency, and characteristics between multiple scales and population were related to LCC. Urban area nearly doubled while farmland decreased by 3% in these years. Urban areas expanded at the expense of farmland, especially in Kathmandu and some districts of the Terai region, which tended to occur on flat areas near the existing urban centers or along the roads. Farmland abandonment was relatively intense with scattered abandoned areas widely distributed in the Hill region under conditions of steep topography and sparse population. The MSPAS model can provide references for the development of sustainable urbanization and agriculture in SDGs.