Multiscale evaluation of tunnel construction safety risk: a case study of an offshore tunnel construction in Ningbo

Abstract

Based on the WBS-RBS method, in this study, the risk factors corresponding to the construction risk events of an offshore tunnel foundation pit in Ningbo were identified, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the construction safety risk of the project. The system-level risk value was obtained by using the risk event deformation resulting from changes in two factors, namely, “mechanical property of soil” and “stiffness of the envelope structure”, to calculate the new event-level risk value corresponding to the deformation using a finite element numerical model. The findings indicate that the tunnel project has a risk evaluation score of 62.78 and thus falls within the category of high-risk projects. A change in risk factors will alter the likelihood that risk events will occur, which affects the safety risk status of the entire project. When two factors are coupled, a project’s system-level risk can increase dramatically.