Multiregional input–output analysis of carbon transfer in interprovincial trade and sectoral strategies for mitigation: Case study of Shanxi province in China

Abstract

Embodied carbon emissions have an important role in China's “dual carbon” target and carbon reduction policy. Our study applied a multiregional input–output (MRIO) model and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of embodied carbon emissions in the specific region of Shanxi Province, an energy-rich region in China, in the empirical study using MRIO data. First, we found that Shanxi had considerable net embodied carbon outflow in interprovincial trade, with outflow increasing from 216.18 Mt in 2012 to 221.60 Mt in 2017. Second, the main driving forces of embodied carbon outflow include technological level and trade demand. We then classified 29 sectors into six categories, including mainly developed, controlled, moderately guided, moderately controlled, cost guided, and maintained to describe the relationship between the net transfer of embodied carbon emissions and value added, and formulated proposed sectoral development policies. Third, the sectors with the highest net embodied carbon outflow include electricity and heat production and supply; metal smelting and rolling processing; and petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing. We constructed a coupled relationship model to adjust the technology and scale of interprovincial trade to reduce carbon emissions with lower cost and higher equity. The results can be used as a reference for formulating carbon reduction policies in energy-rich regions.