Multiple Regression Analysis of Influences of Bar and Tide on Long-term Shoreline Change

Abstract

The influences of bar and tide on shoreline change were investigated using multiple regression models. The models were applied to the shoreline change on the Hasaki coast in Japan facing the Pacific Ocean measured every workday during a 22-year period from 1986 to 2007, and the model performances were evaluated by AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). The results showed that the outer and inner bar elevations, the maximum tide and the tidal range as well as the offshore wave energy flux and the shoreline position affected the shoreline changes. The shoreline retreated more with the increases in the wave energy flux, the maximum tide and the tidal range, with the decreases in the outer and inner bar elevations, and with more seaward shoreline position.