Abstract
Decision making takes into account a myriad of factors about the future topics, which often prove challenging and quite complicated. Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) methods still have not become powerful enough to help decision makers to adopt the best solutions regarding future issues. Different scenarios are suitable for developing an appropriate outlook toward different probable futures. Scenarios are not inherently quantitative, but recently different integrated quantitative methods have been incorporated with the processes in various studies. Previously, different types of scenario-based MADM methods have been presented in different studies, but they just considered each case separately. In those studies, MADM methods were only applied to evaluate the situation in scenario-based MADM. This research concentrates on another paradigm in applying scenarios to upcoming events, MADM methods in the new area are explored, and the concept, which is called MADM based scenarios, is presented. In different situations and scenarios, different MADM models will happen. New concepts about most useful criterion and applicable alternatives are introduced in this new approach for decision-making about the future. In addition, a general framework is proposed for applying MADM-based scenarios for unpredictable scenarios and situations, which can be almost controlled future in practice.
Highlights
One of the most famous branches of operation research models is Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) which is divided into multiple objective decision making (MODM) and multiple attribute decision making (MADM) (Potvin et al 2004; Rousis et al 2008; Zavadskas, Turskis 2011; Liou, Tzeng 2012; Zavadskas et al 2014)
Scenarios based on Multiple Attribute Decision Making is a new paradigm in decision-making, which is presented as a sub-field of MCDM, in general
The main difference between scenarios based on Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and scenario-based MADM is in the type of perspective behind this new paradigm that can be completely useful in decision making about topics and their future
Summary
One of the most famous branches of operation research models is Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) which is divided into multiple objective decision making (MODM) and multiple attribute decision making (MADM) (Potvin et al 2004; Rousis et al 2008; Zavadskas, Turskis 2011; Liou, Tzeng 2012; Zavadskas et al 2014). Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) was considered as a multi-disciplinary methodology for solving problems and decision making in many fields including management science, social sciences, engineering issues, economics etc. The MADM framework is a valuable tool for making the best decisions. Scenario planning is considered a useful tool in the strategic management and future study fields for long-term planning and decision-making (Bradfield et al 2005; Stelzer et al 2015). Scenarios are valuable and useful for exploring the future and for strategic decision-making. Different situations result in different scenarios that will probably happen In these situations, MADM methods cannot be as effective. This research is designed based on a new paradigm in decision-making about future topics. The last part of MADM-based scenarios is presenting a logical solving framework for decision making based on unpredictable scenarios (wild-card scenarios)
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