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Abstract
Frost events can cause the deterioration of a wide range of heritage materials, including stone, brick and earth. In a warming world, the frequency and location of frost events is likely to change, affecting the conservation strategies required at heritage sites. We use a multi-model ensemble approach to investigate three types of frost events in East Asia: freeze–thaw cycles; deep frost days and wet frosts. The study uses nine CMIP6 models for the period 1850 to 2100, with future projections run under the SPS585 scenario. Additional analysis is undertaken for five specific 2° ✕ 2° areas located across East Asia. The three frost event parameters are spatially and temporally distinct. A decrease in all three frost parameters is found in Japan, South Korea and East China, with some areas projected to have no frost events by the end of the twenty-first century. However, Northwest China is distinctive as wet frosts are projected to increase over the twenty-first century, while on the Tibetan plateau of Southwest China, freeze–thaw cycles are projected to increase. This suggests that except in some localised regions, heritage managers can focus on risks other than frost weathering in developing plans to address climate change.Graphical
Highlights
Climate and weather events can drive the deterioration of heritage materials (Deprez et al 2020; Hatir et al 2020; Steiger et al 2011) and the role played by climate change has been of increasing interest (Blavier et al 2023; Orr et al 2021; Sesana et al 2021)
The current study aims to assess the risk of frost damage to materials across East Asia by modelling three frost parameters over the period 1850 — 2100
The spatial distribution of freeze–thaw cycles remains similar throughout the twentieth century, it is worth noting that the areas with low numbers of freeze–thaw cycles in Southwest China in the CanESM5 and FGOALS-g3 models contract in the late twentieth century as temperatures increase
Summary
Climate and weather events can drive the deterioration of heritage materials (Deprez et al 2020; Hatir et al 2020; Steiger et al 2011) and the role played by climate change has been of increasing interest (Blavier et al 2023; Orr et al 2021; Sesana et al 2021). Heritage materials including stone (Bertolin and Cavazzani 2022; Hallet 2006; Sun et al 2023), earth (Cui et al 2019), brick (Balksten and Strandberg-de Bruijn 2021), mortar (Ruegenberg et al 2021) and timber (Bertolin and Cavazzani 2022; Brimblecombe and Richards 2022; Richards and Brimblecombe 2022), are susceptible to frost damage. This deterioration process has been studied using laboratory (Guilbert et al 2019; Labus & Bochen 2012; Martínez-Martínez et al 2013; Mohamed Aly Abdelhamid et al 2020; Ruegenberg et al 2021), field (Coombes et al 2018; Thomachot et al 2006) and modelling methods (Bertolin and Cavazzani 2022; Vyshkvarkova and Sukhonos 2023), with a recent focus on tuning and developing climate parameters to better represent processes that damage heritage (Brimblecombe 2010; Brimblecombe and Richards 2023; Calle and Bossche 2017). The severity of frost damage is influenced both by climate (e.g. frequency, intensity and rate of freeze events) and material properties (e.g. porosity, pore distribution and moisture content) (Everett 1961; Hall 2004; Kapsomenakis et al 2022; Richards et al 2022), and have been reviewed by Deprez et al (2020)
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