Multilayer Perceptron for the Future Urban Growth of the Kharj Region in 2040

Abstract

Urban growth is described as an increase in the size and use of cities, which is frequently the consequence of an increase in the number of residents due to internal or external migration and an increase in economic activity rates. In recent decades, modern technology and mathematical models have been used to determine future urban growth on a large scale and develop sustainable urban policies in the long term. The cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have witnessed economic growth in recent decades, which has resulted in urban expansion, as is evident in this case study of the Kharj region. Since most of the previous studies have not applied mathematical models to predict the urban growth of the Kharj region, this study aims at simulating urban growth over the next two decades, between 2020 and 2040, by monitoring the growth during the past thirty years, which is the period between 1990 and 2020. This study relies on the satellite visualizations of the Landsat satellites 5, 7, and 8 for classifying the land cover by applying the land change model (LCM) and comparing the land-use maps for the years 2000 and 2020. Then, the factors affecting urban growth, such as distance from the city center, the road network, valleys, and land slopes, are determined to monitor the prediction of urban growth. The results showed that the urban areas extended significantly toward the south, southeast, southwest, and northwest, with an area of 269 km². The results further revealed a significant decline in agricultural and vacant lands due to their transformation into residential areas, educational establishments, and industrial facilities. The model’s accuracy was tested to confirm the mathematical model’s validity. The Kappa index findings indicated a high percentage, ranging from 89% in 2010 to 90% in 2020.