Multidivisional planning model for energy, water and environment considering synergies, trade-offs and uncertainty

Abstract

Energy, water, and the environment are intricately connected, and these relationships necessitate their simultaneous management to achieve sustainable development. In this study, a stochastic multidivisional hierarchy model (SMHM) is developed for use in planning an energy-water-environment nexus system (EWES). The SMHM is not only capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval and stochastic parameters within multidivisional and multi-level contexts, but also those accounting for the synergy and trade-off relationships between different stakeholders. Decisions are made through the SMHM in two stages: top management given the first choice followed by the concurrent responses of the divisions. SMHM is applied to a real-world case study of EWES in Shanxi, China. Results reveal that energy-intensive industry (i.e., electricity generation) consumes more water and emits more pollutants than others. In addition, uncertainties have significant effects on the planning strategies of EWES; compared with a high-risk scenario of electricity insufficiency, a low-risk scenario would consume additional amounts of [3.3, 5.7] × 109 tce energy and [1.8, 2.6] × 106 m3 water. Compared with single-level models, the SMHM schemes enable both resource savings and environmental sustainability. These findings could assist stakeholders in resolving conflicts and provide useful information for the integrated management of regional energy, water, and the environment.