Multidimensional Scenario Selection for Power Systems With Stochastic Failures

Abstract

Stochastic optimization can be used to model predictable but uncertain element failures, in an attempt to enhance system reliability in power system operation and planning. In practical applications, such as preventive operation during severe weather, the uncertainty set is often very large. This will lead to two challenges: (i) every possible scenario cannot be practically identified; and (ii) the computational demands of stochastic optimization with a large scenario set cannot be met. To address these challenges, this paper develops a multidimensional scenario selection method, which creates a rather small but representative set of scenarios. The developed method makes use of failure features as well as network features of the elements that may fail, to achieve a superior performance. The simulations studies on a synthetic large-scale Texas system, show the dominant performance of the method compared to existing algorithms in the literature, as well as common industry practices. Due to its effectiveness, the method presented in this paper enables computationally efficient implementation of stochastic power system operation and planning software tools. Such stochastic tools will improve system reliability and efficiency through enhanced use of the existing resources, without requiring any expensive system upgrade.