Multidimensional risk spillover among power, coal, and carbon markets: empirical evidence from China.

Abstract

Amidst the "double carbon" target, China is vigorously promoting the transformation of the electricity and coal markets and carbon markets widely regarded as an effective policy tool for managing carbon emissions. Leveraging sample data from January 3, 2017, to December 16, 2022, this study investigates the risk spillover effects among China's power, coal, and carbon markets via rolling window technology and the DY spillover index. The empirical results indicate a significant long-term two-way asymmetric spillover effect among these markets. Specifically, the Guangdong carbon market acts as both an exporter and receiver of risky fluctuations across the two sample periods. The coal market primarily exhibits a net risk spillover effect on the Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets. Furthermore, the aggregate spillover index reveals that the volatility spillover effects of the power, coal, and carbon markets are significantly amplified by extreme risk events. The rise and volatility of coal prices under the influence of these extreme risk events may lead to government intervention in the power sector, which in turn has an impact on the coal market. These findings underscore the time-varying nature of risk spillovers among markets and have important implications for risk management and the construction of diversified energy markets.