Abstract
This paper evaluates the project risks with a multidimensional and interactive model from multiagent and utility combination, which takes subjective psychological negative utility into account rather than only focusing on the thinking pattern of objective value loss. Firstly, it analyzes the bodies’ heterogeneous preference and their game behavior using game theory application methods. Secondly, it builds multidimensional and interactive evaluation model of large-scale infrastructure project from many dimensions, such as risk rate, objective utility, and subjective utility. It reflects different values and behavior strategy interdynamic factor in the design of risk utility function. Lastly, it deduces process and approaches of multidimensional and interactive evaluation by typical project. In addition, it tests model parameter with regression analysis. The research of this paper broadens the dimension of project risk evaluation and provides comprehensive and balanced reference for the measure of project risk utility and a better basis for project risk control.
Highlights
Large-scale infrastructure project, which profoundly affects social economy and ecological environment, is hugely invested with a strong public property, concerning multiinterests and participants
This paper evaluates the project risks with a multidimensional and interactive model from multiagent and utility combination, which takes subjective psychological negative utility into account rather than only focusing on the thinking pattern of objective value loss
Objective value refers to the sum of economic, social, and environmental ecology value, which is measured by cash flow, while subjective value is a sense of happiness and satisfaction that is gained by relevant subject, which is measured by other forms of conversion
Summary
Large-scale infrastructure project, which profoundly affects social economy and ecological environment, is hugely invested with a strong public property, concerning multiinterests and participants. Based on the project risk evaluation of the existing research results and references to related theory of behavioral economics, this paper expands evaluative dimensions and considers the main loss of psychological factors; it decomposes the overall value loss into objective value loss (cash flow) and subjective value loss (psychological utility). Constructing utility function and “multidimensional interaction combination evaluation model” of large-scale infrastructure project risk on the basis of value preference and behavior game analysis contributes to making the project risk evaluation more scientific and reasonable. TUr is the total utility of project risk, OUr is the objective utility of project risk, SUr is the subjective utility of project risk, β is the subjective utility coefficient of project risk, 0 < β < 1, Fr(V, a, b) is the total utility coefficient of project risk to adjust based on objective utility, Pr is the occurrence rate of project risk, ΔNPVr is the influence of project risk to overall value, ΔNPV1, ΔNPV2, and ΔNPV3 are economic, social, and environmental ecology value losses brought by project risk, w1, w2, and w3 are weightiness of three project values to overall value, fr(a) is the psychological disutility coefficient brought by body’s own risk losses, fr(b) is the psychological disutility coefficient brought by body’s sympathy and care to others’ risk losses, 1 − a is the altruistic preference coefficient, a ⋅ fr(a) + (1 − a) ⋅ fr(b) is the subjective utility coefficient of risks, and 1 + a ⋅ fr(a) + (1 − a) ⋅ fr(b) is the total utility coefficient of risks
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