Multidecadal changes in near‐global cloud cover and estimated cloud cover radiative forcing

Abstract

This study examines variability in zonal mean surface‐observed upper‐level (combined midlevel and high‐level) and low‐level cloud cover over land during 1971–1996 and over ocean during 1952–1997. These data were averaged from individual synoptic reports in the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA). Although substantial interdecadal variability is present in the time series, long‐term decreases in upper‐level cloud cover occur over land and ocean at low and middle latitudes in both hemispheres. Near‐global upper‐level cloud cover declined by 1.5%‐sky‐cover over land between 1971 and 1996 and by 1.3%‐sky‐cover over ocean between 1952 and 1997. Consistency between EECRA upper‐level cloud cover anomalies and those from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984–1997 suggests the surface‐observed trends are real. The reduction in surface‐observed upper‐level cloud cover between the 1980s and 1990s is also consistent with the decadal increase in all‐sky outgoing longwave radiation reported by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). Discrepancies occur between time series of EECRA and ISCCP low‐level cloud cover due to identified and probable artifacts in satellite and surface cloud data. Radiative effects of surface‐observed cloud cover anomalies, called “cloud cover radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies,” are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit cloud cover. Zonal mean estimated longwave CCRF has decreased over most of the globe. Estimated shortwave CCRF has become slightly stronger over northern midlatitude oceans and slightly weaker over northern midlatitude land areas. A long‐term decline in the magnitude of estimated shortwave CCRF occurs over low‐latitude land and ocean, but comparison with ERBS all‐sky reflected shortwave radiation during 1985–1997 suggests this decrease may be underestimated.