Multi-criteria assessment of energy sector nationally appropriate mitigation actions in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Sri Lanka has shown its commitment for greenhouse gas mitigation by publishing nationally determined contributions. Key share of mitigation targets is from the energy sector, amounting to about 40 Mt CO2e during 2020-2030. 52 mitigation options (MOs), referred to as nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs), were identified with a total mitigation potential of 75 Mt CO2e. Globally, the commonly used methodology for prioritization of NAMAs is the marginal abatement cost (MAC) analysis. However, this approach has received criticism over the effectiveness due to its inability to consider other important aspects such as barriers, enablers and co-benefits. The present study proposes a multi-criteria assessment (MCA) methodology involving more comprehensive characteristics of MOs and use of sustainability criteria/indicators to broaden the applicability of MAC analysis. The proposed methodology involves a stage-wise evaluation in three levels. Firstly, MOs identified are pre-screened based on technology maturity and information availability as indicators for chance of success in implementation. Among 52 MOs, 38 qualified for the next assessment level. These MOs are then undergone screening, where MAC and mitigation potential are combined with a scoring system together with a prescribed benchmark value as a qualifying criterion. Accordingly, 31 MOs are qualified, which represent a total mitigation potential of 62 Mt CO2e.Finally, at third level, indicators in relation to barriers, enablers and co-benefits are used to derive an overall score of MCA. The results of MAC and MCA analyses are used in conjunction to prioritize MOs under three appealing levels as 07 highly, 14 moderately and 10 least, with a total mitigation potentials of about 17.1, 32.4 and 12.8 Mt CO2e, respectively. Accordingly, the 21 high and moderate appealing MOs could contribute to the NDC targets. It is concluded that MCA methodology proposed is a sound approach in prioritizing MOs.