Abstract
The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC), have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.
Highlights
Among the various energy resources, electricity is a key secondary energy source and greatly in demand by the various sectors of the economy
Four main-criteria for the sustainability assessment with their seventeen sub-criteria were identified from the literature to undertake the determination of the weightages and ranking of the four scenario alternatives based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) using the Expert Choice
A survey questionnaire was aimed at policy-makers, energy experts from utilities and academia, who were provided with the relevant data to determine the criteria weightages and ranking the four scenario alternatives of the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model on suitability criteria
Summary
Among the various energy resources, electricity is a key secondary energy source and greatly in demand by the various sectors of the economy. Energies 2018, 11, 757 fuel-based electricity generation. These emissions and pollutants adversely impact the environment leading to global warming and climate change, and affecting living organisms [2,3,4]. It is, essential that energy planning should address these concerns, as well as consider the economic and socio-political aspects appropriately. Essential that energy planning should address these concerns, as well as consider the economic and socio-political aspects appropriately All these aspects merged together are described as the sustainability concerns and can be accomplished with the sustainability assessment taken care of during the energy planning process
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call