Multicenter study evaluating factors for stent patency in patients with malignant biliary strictures: development of a simple score model

Abstract

Self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) are known to have a significantly higher patency rate than plastic stents. We aimed to identify prognostic factors, besides stent type, for stent patency and to develop a score model that could further aid in guiding stent choice for the palliation of a malignant biliary stricture. A retrospective multicenter study was conducted. Data on consecutive patients who had a stent placed between January 2002 and July 2009 were collected. Cumulative stent occlusion rates were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank testing, and prognostic factors were assessed by Cox regression analysis. A total of 690 stents (512 plastic stents, 174 SEMS) were endoscopically placed in 390 patients. At 8weeks, stent occlusion had occurred in 32% of the plastic stents and 11% of the SEMS. Multivariate analysis indicated that plastic stents (hazard ratio [HR] 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-3.5), a tight stricture requiring preceding dilation (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.5), and a high initial bilirubin level (>50μmol/L (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.7) were independently associated with an increased risk of stent occlusion. A score model based on these 3 factors was able to distinguish between stent procedures with a relatively high and low risk of stent occlusion (median 14 vs. 26weeks, respectively). Besides plastic stents, stricture severity requiring preceding dilation, and initial higher bilirubin level were associated with a shorter period of stent patency. A simple score model based on these factors was able to predict stent occlusion and may aid in choosing the most appropriate stent type in individual patients.