Multi-stage multi-criteria group decision making method based on hierarchical criteria interaction and trust rejection threshold under uncertain preference information

Abstract

In the face of complex and changeable group decision-making problems, making satisfactory decisions is always difficult, which is deeply affected by information such as different stages, criteria, experts and alternatives. Thus, this study aims to develop an effective multi-stage multi-criteria group decision making (MSMCGDM) method to solve the multi-stage group decision making problems with various information. Firstly, through the introduction of trust rejection threshold, a Cross Calibration method is proposed to calculate experts' weights, considering the social influence of experts in the same stage as well as different stages. Then, based on the extend DEMATEL and Shapley approaches, the DE-Shapley method is constructed to obtain criteria weights considering the hierarchical criteria interaction according to the evaluation information on criteria. Furthermore, inspired by the adjacency matrix, the relationship matrix on alternatives and the concept of alternative sets are proposed to consider the acceptability of alternatives in different stages. Afterwards, elastic mechanism in proposed framework is put forward to deal with the unexpected situations when implementing the optimal alternative set. Finally, two scenarios on snowmelt flood are presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed method, sensitive analysis and comparative analyses are conducted to highlight the advantages of our proposed method.