Multi-spectral remote sensing and GIS-based analysis for decadal land use land cover changes and future prediction using random forest tree and artificial neural network

Abstract

The integration of multi-spectral remote sensing and GIS-based analysis is significant for studying land cover changes, providing valuable insights for informed land management and sustainable development. The present study aims to examine land use land cover (LULC) changes of three decades from 1991 to 2021 and predict the future LULC change in Binh Duong province, Vietnam to explore a future research direction on land use change and associated challenges in the study region. Multi-spectral remote sensing data and random forest tree (RFT) were utilized to generate LULC maps. Areal statistics and annual change rate were considered to analyze the categorical land use change detection. Statistical measures such as user's accuracy, producer’s accuracy, kappa coefficient, and confusion matrix were employed to assess the accuracy of LULC classification. To predict future LULC and simulate the spatio-temporal change, we considered previous year LULC maps, independent spatial variables and a combined artificial neural network (ANN) multi-layer perceptron approach. The analysis revealed that there was a huge transition from agricultural lands to residential land with industry and commerce which resulting an expansion of impervious lands and a rapid decline of agricultural land as well as of scrub land and barren lands, and a changeability of forest and plantation, croplands, and waterbodies. Our study revealed that the impervious land has expanded 10 times within 30 years and will increase in the future.