Multi-Scenario Simulations of Land Use and Habitat Quality Based on a PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Baoding, China

Abstract

Habitat quality and ecosystem service value (ESV) are important foundations for sustainable development. Baoding, as the strategic hinterland of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, is of great significance to regional ecological conservation and sustainable urban development. Based on land-use data from 2000 to 2020, the land-use scenarios of natural development (ND), water protection (WP), forest rehabilitation (FR), and cultivated land protection (CP) in 2030 were predicted by the PLUS model and adopt the InVEST model and equivalent ESV table to assess ecological sustainability. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the construction land in Baoding has increased by 812 km2, and the cultivated land and forest land decreased by 708 km2 and 154 km2. Habitat quality is obviously deteriorating in 4.66% of the city. (2) Under different scenarios, the order of habitat quality is CP > FR > WP > ND. The habitat quality under each scenario is dominated by medium habitat quality. (3) Under different scenarios, the order of ESV is FR > CP> WP > ND. The fluctuation of forest land and cultivated land scale is affecting the ESV. (4) CP and FR will form a land-use pattern that has “high ecological quality and value”, which better balances the economic development and ecological protection of Baoding. This research study will provide a reference for the effective allocation of land resources and will guide the formulation of urban land space planning policy in Baoding.