Abstract
Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.
Highlights
By analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land use and the geographical distribution of the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Anyang between 1995 and 2015, this study developed the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model for analyzing the impact of land use change on the ESV
GeoSOS-FLUS has an adaptive inertial competition mechanism based on roulette selection that can effectively cope with the uncertainty and complexity of the mutual transformation of various land use types under the joint influence of natural and human activities, thereby increasing its simulation accuracy and producing results that closely reflect actual land use distributions [38,39]
The GeoSOS-FLUS model based on an adaptive inertial competition mechanism can solve these problems effectively [37], but this model has been rarely applied in predicting ESV and analyzing the trade-offs and synergy among future ecosystem services
Summary
Ecosystem services are products (such as food and energy) or services (such as air quality regulation) that humans can obtain directly or indirectly from the ecosystem to meet their needs for survival, health, and well-being [1,2,3]. Over the past 50 years, 63% of the global ecosystem services have been seriously attenuated, and human activities are among the key causes [4]. Land use change is the most direct response and manifestation of natural ecosystems to human activities [5,6,7,8]. Based on different social development needs, human beings create different land use patterns on the land surface, thereby driving changes in
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