Multi-scenario simulation of urban growth boundaries with an ESP-FLUS model: A case study of the Min Delta region, China

Abstract

• ESP-FLUS model is developed to predict the urban growth and delineate the urban growth boundaries with a comprehensive consideration of ecological protection. • Random forest coupled with Gini importance are applied to identify the driving forces of land use change. • Urban growth simulation and urban growth boundaries delineation are conducted under different scenarios. • Local master plans and national policies are considered in advancing the optimal urban growth scenario. Delineating urban growth boundaries (UGBs) has been proved as an effective approach to constrain urban encroachment and achieve sustainable urban development. However, so far, many studies have not fully taken account of the ecosystem integrity in simulating the urban growth as well as the corresponding UGBs delineation. To bridge this research gap, this paper proposes an ESP-FLUS model to predict the future land use pattern with a comprehensive consideration of ecological protection. In this paper, on the one hand, the ecological security pattern (ESP) is integrated from four ecological aspects (i.e., hydrology, geology, biodiversity, and recreation) and classified into three levels (i.e., basic ESP, intermediate ESP, and optimal ESP). On the other hand, drawing on historical records, random forest coupled with Gini importance are applied to identify the driving factors in shaping the land use variation. Taking the classified ESP as the spatial constraint allied with the identified driving factors into a FLUS model, this paper predicts the urban growth in 2035 in a multi-scenario manner. By analysing the multi-scenario simulation results at both region and district levels, the possible urban planning option under the requirements of local master plans is suggested for sustainable urban development. Against a backdrop of an increasingly severe environmental crisis, this paper develops a new research paradigm to incorporate ESP into UGBs delineation as a way to shed light for urban planners on reaching the balance between eco-environment protection and socio-economic development.