Abstract
In recent decades, the ecological security pattern (ESP) has drawn increasing scientific attention against the backdrop of rapid urbanization and worsening ecological environment. Despite numerous achievements in identifying and constructing the ecological security pattern, limited attention has been paid on applying ESP to predict urban growth. To bridge the research gap, this paper took Quanzhou, China as a study case and incorporated the identified ESP into an urban growth simulation with three distinct scenarios. Following the “ecological source–ecological corridor–ecological security pattern” paradigm, the ESP identification was carried out from four single aspects (i.e., water, geology, biodiversity, and recreation) into three levels (i.e., basic ESP, intermediate ESP, and optimal ESP). Grounded in an equally weighted superposition algorithm, the four single ESPs were combined as an integrated ESP (IESP) with three levels. Taking IESP as an exclusion element, urban growth simulation in 2030 was completed with thee SLEUTH model. Drawing on the three levels of IESP, our urban growth simulation contained three scenarios. In terms of urban sprawl distribution coupled with urban growth rate, an optimal urban growth scenario is recommended in this paper to balance both urban development and eco-environment protection. We argue that our ESP-based urban growth simulation results shed new light on predicting urban sprawl and have the potential to inform planners and policymakers to contribute to more environmentally-friendly urban development.
Highlights
Human activity and ecological environment are intrinsically linked
We argue that our ecological security pattern (ESP)-based urban growth simulation results shed new light on predicting urban sprawl and have the potential to inform planners and policymakers to contribute to more environmentally-friendly urban development
As the water ESP in three different levels was spatially nested with similar shapes, the area became a major aspect of dissimilarity
Summary
The rapid development of urbanization has induced a series of environmental problems including the overconsumption of natural resources, environmental degradation, air pollution, and soil erosion [1,2,3,4]. These environmental problems, in return, intensify the risk of natural disasters and jeopardize human well-being in a wide variety of aspects from health and safety to living standards [5,6]. To achieve the trade-off between economic development and eco-environment protection, the concept of ecological security was proposed in the early 1980s [8,9]. From national governments to worldwide organizations, plenty of strategies to maintain ecological security have been enacted and implemented [10,11,12]
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More From: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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