Multi-scenario simulation of land use/land cover change and water yield evaluation coupled with the GMOP-PLUS-InVEST model: A case study of the Nansi Lake Basin in China

Abstract

Changes in land use/land cover (LULC) can impact water yield (WY) by altering the structural layout and functions of terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, to ensure regional economic and ecosystem sustainability, it is critical to investigate the correlation between LULC change and WY. The GMOP-PLUS-InVEST (GPI) coupling model based on the gray multi-objective optimization model, the patch-generating land use simulation model, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model was used in this study. Establishing three different scenarios: business as usual (BAU), economic development scenario (ED), and ecological conservation scenario (EC) to predict the LULC distribution pattern in the Nansi Lake Basin (NLB) in 2035, and obtain the WY from 2000 to 2035. Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran's I were used to investigate the spatial–temporal features of WY at the grid scale. The results indicated that: (1) The dominant LULC types of the NLB were farmland and construction land. The primary transfer trend was construction land encroaching on farmland due to the acceleration of the urbanization process and policy intervention. (2) The results of the LULC simulation in the NLB in 2035 showed that the BAU had a continuous trend of change for nearly 20 years; Under the ED, the intensity of construction land encroachment on farmland was accelerating; Under the EC, an apparent increase in the proportion of ecological land could be seen, and the contradiction between construction land and farmland had eased, which was expected to be more in line with the policy and planning objectives. (3) LULC change had a significant effect on WY. From 2000 to 2035, WY of the NLB continued to increase, and in 2035, the WY under different scenarios was ED > EC > BAU. Spatially it always showed a high value distribution in the south and west in the NLB. The GPI coupling model can be used for LULC optimization and ecosystem service evaluation, providing ideas for rational planning of future LULC. Research results have significant reference significance for the formulation of LULC policies and the protection and restoration of ecological environment of the NLB.