Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

Investigating the future land use patterns and carbon emissions are of great significance for carbon reduction. This study established the relationship between land use types and carbon emissions from energy consumption and adopted three future scenarios that combine shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the system dynamics (SD) model, and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use patterns in 2030 and 2035. Then the spatial distribution of future carbon density and its change in Shenzhen were obtained. Under scenario SSP245, a large amount of industrial and mining land is converted into living land from 2020 to 2035, and new living land is mainly located in Bao’an District and Guangming District. Under scenario SSP370, a large amount of living land replaces other land due to a plentiful population from 2020 to 2035, which is rare under other scenarios. The expansions of areas with high carbon density during 2020–2030 are mainly distributed in Nanshan District and Longhua District under all three scenarios. During 2030–2035, carbon emissions will decrease under scenarios SSP126 and SSP245. The results confirmed various trends in carbon emissions under different scenarios and emphasized the association between land use types and carbon emissions.