Multi-scenario analysis on hydrogen production development using PESTEL and FCM models

Abstract

Governments efforts to reduce future emissions and change the trajectory of fossil fuel consumption must include widespread adoption of the Hydrogen (H2) promise. However, from a long-term viewpoint, inherent uncertainties drive the strategic vision of H2 development, usage and establishment. The future trends created by a variety of exogenous and endogenous elements, including Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors (PESTEL) are significantly influenced by these unpredictable volatilities as they come into play. The objective of this study is to recognize, define, and analyze significant PESTEL aspects influencing the dynamics of H2 energy in an unpredictably changing environment. Fuzzy Inference systems (FIS) and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) methodologies were used for the case scenario of Greece to analyze how interrelated criteria from the previous categories interact dynamically and behave in a holistic approach. With the help of diverse quadruple helix stakeholders, a survey and three workshops were conducted to establish a participatory modeling framework with multi-level scenario analysis phases for the Greek use case. Initially, an FCM model was determined as an amalgamation of qualitative and quantitative valued concepts. This model was augmented by four more concepts related to Greek H2 production plants projecting future trends of this industry. We run several scenarios (including best and worst case) to analyze the influence of politics and regional economy to the growth of H2 production industry. The scenario of energy crisis depicts a limited positive trend of the hydrogen production. While the economy grows, and the crisis diminishes results show a stronger turn to the hydrogen production. Societal factors affect the process in all phases and scenarios. Results span from deterioration trends to slight improvements depending on the starting values of key criteria.