Multi-objective energy planning for China's dual carbon goals

Abstract

Long-term dependence on fossil fuels for economic growth is a primary driver of carbon emissions in emerging economies such as China. To achieve China's dual carbon goals (DCGs) of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, we developed a dynamic input-output multi-objective optimisation model, combined with scenario setting, to explore the optimization pathways of carbon emissions, economic growth, and energy consumption. With reference to policy reports, we set different economic growth scenarios, and consider ambitious, moderate, and conservative carbon emission scenarios. The results showed that large-scale expansion of the tertiary industry is essential to realize the DCGs. The cumulative carbon emissions for the ambitious scenario were approximately 1.8 times higher than those for the conservative scenario. Further, the carbon intensity in 2030 would decrease by >69.2 % compared to the 2005 level. It means that China can achieve carbon reduction targets for 2030. We projected that future Chinese energy consumption will peak in 2035, reaching 180.64 EJ. We also optimized the installed electricity generation mix to be consistent with future development scenarios for China. This study provides valuable insights into the strategies and policy requirements to meet China's newly announced DCGs to assist in mitigating global climate change.