Multi-model cross-pollination in time

Abstract

The predictive skill of complex models is rarely uniform in model-state space; in weather forecasting models, for example, the skill of the model can be greater in the regions of most interest to a particular operational agency than it is in “remote” regions of the globe. Given a collection of models, a multi-model forecast system using the cross-pollination in time approach can be generalized to take advantage of instances where some models produce forecasts with more information regarding specific components of the model-state than other models, systematically. This generalization is stated and then successfully demonstrated in a moderate (∼40) dimensional nonlinear dynamical system, suggested by Lorenz, using four imperfect models with similar global forecast skill. Applications to weather forecasting and in economic forecasting are discussed. Given that the relative importance of different phenomena in shaping the weather changes in latitude, changes in attitude among forecast centers in terms of the resources assigned to each phenomena are to be expected. The demonstration establishes that cross-pollinating elements of forecast trajectories enriches the collection of simulations upon which the forecast is built, and given the same collection of models can yield a new forecast system with significantly more skill than the original forecast system.