Multi-institutional validation of the predictive value of Ki-67 in patients with high-grade urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract.

Abstract

371 Background: To validate the independent predictive value of Ki-67 in patients with high-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). Methods: 475 patients from the international UTUC collaboration who underwent extirpative surgery for high-grade UTUC were included in this study. Immunohistochemical staining for Ki-67 was performed on tissue microarray (TMA) formed from this patient cohort. Ki-67 expression was assessed in a semi-quantitative fashion and considered overexpressed at a cut-off of 20%. Multivariate analyses (MVA) were performed to assess independent predictors of oncological outcomes and Harrell’s C indices (HCI) were calculated for predictive models. Results: Median age of the cohort was 69.7 years and 55.2% of patients were male. Ki-67 was overexpressed in 25.9% of patients. Ki-67 overexpression was significantly associated with ureteral tumor location, higher pT-stage, lymphovascular invasion, sessile tumor architecture, tumor necrosis, concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS), and regional lymph node metastases. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, overexpressed Ki-67 was associated with worse recurrence-free (RFS) (HR 12.6, p<0.001) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR 15.8, p<0.001). In MVA, Ki-67 was an independent predictor of RFS (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.07-2.30, p=0.021) and CSS (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.29-2.90, p=0.001). Ki-67 improved HCI from 0.66 to 0.70 (p<0.0001) for both RFS and CSS in our preoperative model, and from 0.81 to 0.82 (p=0.0018) for RFS and 0.81 to 0.83 (p=0.005) for CSS in our post-operative model. Conclusions: Ki-67 was validated as an independent prognostic predictor of RFS and CSS in patients treated with extirpative surgery for high-grade UTUC in a large, multi-institutional cohort.