Multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy system based on sequence decomposition fusion and factors correlation analysis

Abstract

Considering the seasonal and cyclical fluctuation of loads and the complexity of multi-energy coupling, this paper proposes a novel load forecasting model based on sequence decomposition fusion and factors correlation analysis. Firstly, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose the highly complex load sequences and the novel influencing factors correlation analysis (ICA) is proposed to select strong factors and remove weak feature variables to construct the input and output set. Secondly, this paper proposes the combined forecasting framework MTL-CNN-BiGRU-Attention to simultaneously forecast the cooling, heat, and electricity loads, along with BiGRU used as the hard sharing layer to deeply explore the coupling information between different types of loads. Meanwhile, the gray wolf algorithm (GWO) is improved to accurately and quickly search for the optimal hyperparameters of the model. Finally, the dataset of a comprehensive energy station in Shanghai is used to test our model, and the results show that the MAPE of the cooling and electricity loads forecasting achieve 5.501% and 5.821% in summer and 5.921%, 7.899% and 7.541% for the cooling, heat and electricity loads in transition season and winter, which confirms the effectiveness and superiority of our model.