Multi-criteria analysis of options for the fuel and energy sector's development: Taking into account the energy security performance

Abstract

Subject. This article discusses the methods of multi-criteria analysis of the effectiveness of energy development options. Objectives. The article aims to determine the range of criterion indicators taken into account in the comprehensive assessment of options for the development of the fuel and energy complex. Methods. For the study, we used a systems analysis applying optimization and stochastic economic and mathematical models. Results. The article offers different methodological approaches to assessing the probable status of energy security when comparing options for the energy development at different time frames of forecast research. The article also presents certain author-developed metrics that characterize the energy security performance. Conclusions. A numerical assessment of the energy security performance should become an important component of multi-criteria analysis and selection of options for the energy systems' development. The assessment methods and metrics used depend on the perspective and the task in hand.