Multi-attribute evaluation of landscape-level fuel management to reduce wildfire risk

Abstract

This paper provides an example of the practical application of multi-attribute trade-off analysis (MATA) to wildfire management. The MATA approach supports more informed decision-making because it exposes important trade-offs among competing management objectives (requiring value-based choices), helps guide and structure necessary technical judgements, explicitly represents uncertainty (i.e., not just expected outcomes but risk profiles around outcomes) and addresses temporal trade-offs. MATA promotes critical thinking about what analysis is required for decision-making. A MATA approach can be applied for all types of forest and fire management decisions. In this paper, we provide a sample application of MATA to an evaluation of landscape-level fuel treatments for managing wildfire risk. The study area is located in southeastern British Columbia, Canada where historical fire suppression policies and expanding development in wildland urban interface areas have resulted in an increase in both the probability and the consequences of stand replacement fires. We specify management objectives and develop measurable attributes for fire management costs, timber supply, property damage, landscape-level biodiversity, local air quality and climate change. We then simulate the effects on these attributes of four alternative fuel management strategies that include combinations of mechanical treatments and prescribed burning over a 100-year period. The evaluation illustrates the key features of MATA while highlighting the benefits and challenges of implementing the approach.