Moving from Race- to Performance-based Politics: Swing Voters in South Africa’s 2016 Local Elections

Abstract

Who are the swing voters in South Africa’s racially charged elections? This study is among the first to investigate systematically the correlates of the swing vote in South Africa. I argue that race, cohort, party performance, and partisan networks influence the likelihood that an individual is a swing voter. To investigate these arguments, this study uses original exit-poll survey data from South Africa’s 2016 local elections. The results indicate that the swing voters in the 2016 elections are those voters who have weaker racial identities, have weaker attachments to their racial group’s party, are born free, have lower assessments of ANC performance, and have fewer friends and family who support their preferred party. The paper also predicts the variables that drive swing voters to support a specific party. The results have key implications for race- and identity-based voting in South Africa and dominant regimes across the African continent.