Swing Voter and Governing Party Alternation in Taiwan: Victory of Opposition KMT in the 2008 Presidential Election

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between swing voters and alternation of governing party in Taiwan by using national survey data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. It finds that the electoral decision of swing voters always determines electoral outcome. Besides, swing voters make their vote choice based on different heuristics, whereas non-swing voters cast a vote solely based on partisan identification. Issue voting is one of the major heuristic of swing voters. Cross-strait economic integration and the referendum about membership of the United Nations were two determinative issues to swing voters in the 2008 presidential election. Alternation of the governing party succeeded in 2008 because the Democratic Progressive Party took the false step of proposing a referendum and the Kuomintang took advantage of promoting cross-strait economic integration.