MOVING AVERAGE COMPARISON AND PROJECTION TREND AS A PRODUCTION PLANNING MEASUREMENT AT UD. MAYONG SARI PROBOLINGGO

Abstract

The research was conducted on the company UD. Mayong Sari Probolinggo with the aim of knowing the comparison of forecasting calculations using a moving average and trend projection as a measuring tool in production planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative. Quantitative descriptive is a report that is an explanation and reference to describe what is stated in the research. The results showed that the value of MAD( Mean Absolute Deviation) trend projection amounting to 6,390,887and MSE ( Mean Square Error ) trend projection amounting to 274,523,957while MAD moving average amounting to 76,222.91, and MSE moving average amounting to 273,838,079.3, so companies better use moving average because when viewed from the comparison of MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSE , the value of MAD and MSE trend projection has a smaller error rate than MAD and MSE trend projection. So it can be concluded that the moving average method should be used in planning bread production at UD. MAYONG SARI PROBOLINGGO