ANALISA PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN PRODUK SEPATU MENGGUNAKAN METODE FORCASTING, EOQ dan MONTE CARLO PADA PT KIRANA ABADI SENTOSA

Abstract

This study aims to determine which method is appropriate for predicting shoe demand at PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa for the January-December 2018 period based on the smallest MAD and MSE values and to know the application of Monte Carlo simulations to calculate inventory at PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa. In this research the Time Series forecasting method (Naive Method, Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing and Trend Projection) will be compared, then Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Error (MSE) will be used. After selecting the smallest MAD and MSE and determine the forecast results then entered into the EOQ calculation and compared using Monte Carlo simulations. The research methodology used is quantitative methods. From the analysis of this research Naïve Method is the method that has the smallest value with a MAD value of 9.277 and MSE 211.104. The results of Time Series forecasting and EOQ calculations and the results of the Monte Carlo simulation obtained calculations that are suitable for the company PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa are Monte Carlo simulations because it can produce a total inventory cost much smaller at Rp40,791,144,304. Keywords: Forecasting, Quantitative, Inventory, EOQ, Monte Carlo SimulationÂ