Mortality trend in nasopharynx cancer in Chinese resident from 1987 to 2015

Abstract

To analyze epidemical features, distribution and time trend for nasopharynx cancer deaths in China from 1987 to 2015. Methods: Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors for nasopharynx cancer deaths and a joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in nasopharynx cancer mortality in various populations. Results: A falling trend in age-standardized nasopharynx cancer mortality rates was observed among Chinese residents with the average annual percent change (AAPC) at -2.97% among urban female residents and -2.60% among rural female residents (P<0.05), -2.01% among urban male residents, and -1.68% among rural male residents (P<0.05), respectively. It decreased yearly for urban male aged over 85 years with AAPC at -1.54% and the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for the urban female aged over 85 years with AAPC at -0.60%, the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for rural male residents aged more than 65 years with AAPC at -0.56% and for rural female residents aged more than 85 with AAPC at 1.17%, with no significant difference (P<0.05). The nasopharynx cancer deaths risks were higher in urban residents than those in rural residents (OR=1.11, P<0.01), and they were also higher in male residents than those in female residents (OR=2.34, P<0.01). A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 23% increase in nasopharynx cancer mortality (OR=1.23, P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 2% decrease in mortality (OR=0.98, P<0.01). Conclusion: There was a significant gender and age difference in a decreased trend of nasopharynx cancer mortality among Chinese residents in a long period; no increased trend was observed in the overall populations over 85 years old.