Mortality among the Russian working-age population from suicide: official and actual rates

Abstract

Abstract Purpose of the study is to assess suicide-related loss of the Russian working-age population in the 2000s and extent of its possible under-reporting. Analysis is based on Rosstat data on deaths among the Russian working-age population (15-59 years) calculated in FAISS-Potential, as well as data on mortality from suicide in the “old” and “new” European Union (EU) (before and after May 2004) from the European mortality database. Officially, mortality from suicide among the working-age population decreased at 3.4 fold in males and 2.9 in females, far exceeding the rate of decline in the overall mortality from external causes which equaled to 2.6 times in males and 2.5 in females in 2000-2018. Currently, the Russian mortality from suicide is multifold higher than the “old” EU one across all working ages and higher than the “new” EU one among population aged up to 45 years only. The rate of decline in mortality from event of undetermined intent among working-age population was lower compared to suicide, adding up to 14.2% and 11.6% vs 3.4 and 2.9-fold. And the Russia's such loss compared to the “new” EU one was about 10-fold in both males and females across all working ages. With a high degree of probability, “events of undetermined intent” are likely to be latent suicides. Conclusions Official mortality from suicide among working-age population decreased at extremely high rate with linear trends. A significant share of suicide mortality is latent and is counted as events of undetermined intent. With a high degree of probability, latent suicides cover hanging, jumping/falling from a high place, and drug poisoning of undetermined intent. The trend in loss due to latent suicide is negative. The share of latent events among actual suicide-related loss in 2010s steadily increased, exceeding one third in males and reaching 50% in females in 2018. Currently, mortality from suicide is likely to exceed the Rosstat indicators by 60% in males and over 2-fold in females. Key messages In the 2000s, the official mortality from suicide among the Russian working-age population decreased at an extremely high rate with linear trends. The share of latent events among the actual suicide-related loss in the 2010s steadily increased, exceeding one third in males in 2018 and reaching 50% in females.