Morphology of transition pathway matters: System dynamics to assess alternative livelihood policy towards groundwater sustainability

Abstract

Groundwater sustainability is defined as developing and using groundwater resources to meet the needs of future generations without detrimental impacts on the environment (groundwater) or society (livelihood). In response to the growing concern to achieve that, Alternative Livelihood (AL) policy has been proposed that implies replacing irrigated agriculture with livelihoods relying less on water. This policy inevitably takes place in the long term and deals with the Transition Pathway (TP), which tends to follow a typical S-shaped path over time. This paper sheds light on the morphology of the S-shaped course on AL policy success, which has yet to remain unsubstantiated. For this purpose, a case study is adopted to launch an AL policy to fulfil groundwater sustainability, decreasing irrigated agriculture upon a TP and developing shrimp farms to compensate for reduced agricultural value-added. In the following, based on a system dynamics analysis, the AL policy's success is assessed under various TP morphologies for a long-term simulation. The results indicate that even significantly shrinking irrigated agriculture does not ensure sustainable groundwater without an effective TP morphology.