Morphological risk model assessing anterior communicating artery aneurysm rupture: Development and validation

Abstract

ObjectivePrediction of the rupture risk in anterior communicating artery (ACoA) aneurysms remains challenging. We aimed to investigate the association of detailed morphologies with ACoA aneurysm rupture. Patient and methods759 consecutive patients with ACoA aneurysms were identified from December 2007 to January 2016. An independent cohort was collected for validation from March 2017 to October 2019. Morphological parameters of the aneurysms were measured using CT angiography. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to investigate the association of morphological characteristics with aneurysm rupture. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were used to assess the performance of the model. ResultsA total of 650 patients with 650 ACoA aneurysms were included for the derivation, and 41 patients with 41 ACoA aneurysms were included for the validation. Aneurysm size, neck size, aspect ratio, size ratio, vessel angle, anterior projection, dominant A1 segment, irregular shape, the presence of a daughter dome, vessel size, and aneurysm angle were risk factors for rupture. The multivariable analysis showed that a larger aneurysm, anterior projection of aneurysms, dominant A1 segment, and irregular aneurysms were associated with aneurysm rupture, whereas larger vessel size was inversely associated with rupture. The morphological risk score showed good discrimination of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with an AUC of 0.73 in the derivation and an AUC of 0.80 in the validation, and good calibration in both cohorts, signifying a good fit. ConclusionThe morphological risk model may contribute to evaluating the risk of rupture of ACoA aneurysms.