Abstract
Reliable long-range reservoir inflow forecast is essential to successfully manage water supply from reservoirs. This study aims to develop statistical reservoir inflow forecast models for a reservoir watershed, based on hydroclimatic teleconnection between monthly reservoir inflow and climatic variables. Predictability of such a direct relationship has not been assessed yet at the monthly time scale using the statistical ensemble approach that employs multiple data-driven models as an ensemble. For this purpose, three popular data-driven models, namely multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to develop monthly reservoir inflow forecasting models. These models have been verified using leave-one-out cross-validation with expected error S as a measure of forecast skill. The S values of the MLR model ranged from 0.21 to 0.55, the ANN model ranged from 0.20 to 0.52 and the SVM from 0.21 to 0.56 for different months. When used as an ensemble, Bayesian model averaging was more accurate than simple model averaging and naïve forecast for four target years tested. These were considered to be decent prediction skills, indicating that teleconnection-based models have the potential to be used as a tool to make a decision for reservoir operation in preparing for droughts.
Highlights
Like many regions in developed countries, demands on water resources of the Southern Chungnam province, fourth largest in South Korea, are continuously growing, but there is only one water source—Boryeong multi-purpose Dam
We described the correlation strength between predictors and reservoir inflow of 0.80 and higher as “very strong”, those from 0.60 to 0.79 as “strong” and those from 0.40
Atlantic index (TNA; lag-10 months) and extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST; lag-3 months), and showed strong correlation (−0.67, 0.61) with p-values of less than 1%
Summary
Like many regions in developed countries, demands on water resources of the Southern Chungnam province, fourth largest in South Korea, are continuously growing, but there is only one water source—Boryeong multi-purpose Dam. The available reservoir storage of Boryeong Dam is 116.9 million tons and designed to supply 23,800 tons per day for agricultural, residential and industrial use serving. Because of the region’s adjacency to Seoul, the capital of South Korea, construction of an industrial complex has been planned in the near future, which will increase water demand. These increasing water demands have raised several concerns
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