Monte Carlo simulation applied to distribution feeder reliability evaluation

Abstract

The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in reliability evaluation has increased considerably with the advent of high-speed digital computers. This paper describes a Monte Carlo approach to radial distribution feeder reliability assessment. The paper presents the results of a series of simulations studying the distributional variation associated with reliability indices for distribution feeders. In particular, the impacts on the predicted customer load point and feeder interruption costs are presented by application to a radial feeder. The results obtained by the simulation method are compared with those obtained using an analytical approach. The study results show that the simulation method gives acceptable expected reliability indices and can also be used to provide information on the probability distributions associated with the predicted indices. This paper illustrates that Monte Carlo simulation is a useful and powerful tool for distribution feeder reliability evaluation.