Monitoring the evolution of drought conditions over Africa

Abstract

Droughts have been found to have serious repercussions on humans, animals, and plants’ lives and they are likely to intensify under increasing global mean temperature. Monitoring drought conditions help in designing appropriate adaptations and mitigation strategies. This paper monitors the evolution of drought conditions in Africa over the past 30 years and the potential repercussions posed by this disaster event. We analyze and compare trends in surface temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, the University of Delaware, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and the DAI PDSI gridded data for the period 1984-2014. Results from the NCEP/NCAR, University of Delaware, CPC, and the DAI PDSI gridded data show an increasingly warmer, drier, and less cloudy Sub-Saharan climate but with an intensification of the West African monsoon rainfall. Moreover, more than 80% of the continent shows strong evidence of droughts with an average increase in drought severity index. These conditions will likely have a negative effect on the agricultural sector which accounts for more than 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of this region thereby posing a serious threat to regional food security. We recommend the research into and the development of new crop varieties that can tolerate higher temperatures and need less water. Additionally, our findings can also be used in Sub-Saharan Africa’s water management systems.