Monitoring of Plant Ecological Units Cover Dynamics in a Semiarid Landscape from Past to Future Using Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities and natural disturbances cause changes in natural ecosystems, leading to altered Plant Ecological Units (PEUs). Despite a long history of land use and land cover change detection, the creation of change detection maps of PEUs remains problematic, especially in arid and semiarid landscape. This study aimed to determine and describe the changes in PEUs patterns in the past and present, and also predict and monitor future PEUs dynamics using the multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain (MLP-MC) model in a semiarid landscape in Central Zagros, Iran. Analysis of PEUs classification maps formed the basis for the identification of the main drivers in PEUs changes. First, an optimal time-series dataset of Landsat images were selected to derive PEUs classification maps in three periods, each separated by 16 years. Then, PEUs multi-temporal maps classified for period 1 (years 1986–1988) period 2 (years 2002–2004), and period 3 (years 2018–2020) were employed to analyze and predict PEUs dynamics. The dominant transitions were identified, and the transition potential was determined by developing twelve sub-models in the final change prediction process. Transitions were modeled using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm. To predict the PEU map for period 3, two PEUs classification maps of period 1 and period 2 were used using the MLP-MC method. The classified map and the predicted map of period 3 were used to evaluate and validate the predicted results. Finally, based on the results, transitions of future PEUs were predicted for the year 2036. The MLP-MC model proved to be a powerful model that can predict future PEUs dynamics that are the result of current human and managerial activities. The findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of anthropogenic processes and management activities will become visible in the natural environment and ecosystem in less than a decade.