Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Changes Related to Invasive Species and Major Driving Forces in the State of Connecticut

Wenjie Wang,Kathleen Segerson,John Silander,Weidong Li,Mark Boyer,Chuanrong Zhang,Jenica Allen

doi:10.3390/land5030025

Wenjie Wang, Kathleen Segerson + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/land5030025

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Journal: Land	Publication Date: Jul 28, 2016
Citations: 51	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Connecticut, University of New Hampshire

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) patterns play an important role in the establishment and spread of invasive plants. Understanding LULC changes is useful for early detection and management of land-use change to reduce the spread of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to analyze and predict LULC changes in Connecticut. LULC maps for 1996, 2001 and 2006 were selected to analyze past land cover changes, and then potential LULC distribution in 2018 was predicted using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov Chain (MLP_MC) model. This study shows that the total area of forest has been decreasing, mainly caused by urban development and other human activity in Connecticut. The model predicts that the study area will lose 5535 ha of deciduous forest and gain 3502 ha of built-up area from 2006 to 2018. Moreover, forests near built-up areas and agriculture lands appear to be more vulnerable to conversion. Changes in LULC may result in subtle spatial shifts in invasion risk by an abundant invasive shrub, Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii). The gain of developed areas at the landscape scale was most closely linked to increased future invasion risk. Our findings suggest that the forest conversion needs to be controlled and well managed to help mitigate future invasion risk.

Highlights

Introduction32% of the invasive plant species in the region and constitute about 70% of the invasive plant occurrence records [1]
Woody alien plants are important in the Northeastern United States: they make up32% of the invasive plant species in the region and constitute about 70% of the invasive plant occurrence records [1]
We focused on an abundant invasive shrub in Connecticut to investigate the effects of land use change on probability of presence

Summary

Introduction

32% of the invasive plant species in the region and constitute about 70% of the invasive plant occurrence records [1]. In Connecticut, invasive species constitute a high percentage of the vascular plant flora, and have created ecological damage and economic losses [1,2,3,4]. The cost to control invasive species and the damages they inflicted upon properties and natural resources in the U.S is estimated at. $137 billion annually [11] These invasive species pose an important threat to biodiversity in Connecticut [3]. Invasive plants co-occur with nearly half of rare plant species in New England, and are most frequent and diverse in Connecticut among all New England states [7]

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