Monitoring and predicting development of built-up area in sub-urban areas: A case study of Sleman, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Monitoring built-up areas in the previous year and possible predictions for the following year are important in planning regional development and controlling the expansion of built-up areas. This study detects changes in the built-up area (2018–2022). It predicts the future (2026) using Landsat satellite imagery in the Sleman Regency, Yogyakarta Special Region, Indonesia study area. Mapping built-up areas is identified using the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). Vegetation conditions were analyzed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Changes in the built-up area are predicted using the CA-Markov chain model for 2026. The prediction is calibrated by comparing the simulated map with the results of the classification of built-up areas in 2022. The research findings show that the built-up area has increased by 12.84 % from 2018 to 2022 and is predicted to increase by 15.48 % in 2026. The existence of built-up areas has an influence on land surface temperatures where the analysis results show a moderate correlation between NDBI and LST, namely 2018 (R2 = 0.401), 2019 (R2 = 0.323), 2020 (R2 = 0.401), 2021 (R2 = 0.415), and 2022 (R2 = 0.384). The higher the NDBI value, the higher the LST value, and vice versa. Therefore, regional development planning, mainly built-up areas, is an important recommendation for decision-makers in the study area.