Abstract
The Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center (BS-MFC) is the European reference service for the provision of ocean analyses, forecasts, and reanalyses in the Black Sea basin. It is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and ensures a high level of efficiency in terms of operations, science, and technology for predictions and the monitoring of physical and biogeochemical processes in the Black Sea. The operational BS-MFC framework is based on state-of-the-art numerical models for hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry, and waves; analysis, forecast, and reanalysis are provided on a spatial grid with about 3 km of horizontal resolution that covers the whole Black Sea basin (the Azov Sea is not included). The scientific assessment of BS-MFC products is performed by implementing a product quality dashboard that provides pre-qualification and operational model skills according to GODAE/OceanPredict standards. Novel interfaces based on high-resolution models are part of the scientific development plan to ensure a strong connection with the nearest seas from a modelling point of view, in particular with the Mediterranean Sea. To improve forecasting skills, dedicated online coupled systems are being developed, which involve physics, biogeochemistry, and waves together with the atmosphere and, in the future, with ensemble forecasting methodologies and river-ocean interfaces.
Highlights
Understanding, predicting, and reconstructing the ocean state is globally one of the most challenging objectives for operational oceanography, especially to support user needs as well as down-stream services and applications for what is termed the Blue Growth and the Blue Economy for a Blue Society
The Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center (BS-MFC) is the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) operational service dedicated to the regional needs of the Black Sea, which has been operational since the end of 2016 and serves about 60 “active users” from academia (~30%), public sectors and organizations (~20%), and the business and private sectors (~50%)
Access to high-quality operational data related to forecasting and reconstruction of past ocean states in the Black Sea is a pre-requisite for achieving these targets
Summary
Understanding, predicting, and reconstructing the ocean state is globally one of the most challenging objectives for operational oceanography, especially to support user needs as well as down-stream services and applications for what is termed the Blue Growth and the Blue Economy for a Blue Society. Due to particular physical and biogeochemical processes, the Black Sea deserves a more dedicated focus so as to be able to set up a reliable modelling system and observing network for the generation of operational ocean forecasting systems This baseline is one of the main priorities pursued within the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS, [1]). It is forced by water, heat, and momentum fluxes, interactively computed by bulk formulae, implemented for the Mediterranean Forecasting System [8] and modified for the Black Sea to account for the Brunt–Berliand formula for the net longwave radiation, as in [9] It uses monthly climatological precipitation from the GPCP dataset [10,11] and the 3–6 h and 0.125◦ operational analysis and forecast atmospheric fields provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the Italian Aeronautica Militare. The time series covers the period of January 1993–December 2019 and provides monthly and daily means for the 3D temperature, salinity, current and 2D sea-surface height and mixed-layer depth
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