Modified three-stage model for forecasting the demand for energy resources at various hierarchy levels of the economy

Abstract

Forecasting of the demand for energy resources is a very important scientific area when determining adequacy of energy resources in the country, compiling the country’s energy balance, determining need for import of some energy resources for the country’s economy for types of economic activity (TEA) and regions. The pace of development and proportions in the country’s and the region’s economy may affect their levels of energy consumption, and the latter determine the extent of energy industry’s impact on the environment, i.e. these indicators are interdependent. The relevance of the work is related to creation of a mathematical model and tools for forecasting the demand for energy resources and determining the amount of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuels combustion. The methods and tools for forecasting the demand for energy resources for various types of economic activity or regions take into account the following factors: impact of changes in the structure of the economy on fuel and energy consumption as well as on technological re-equipment of industries that together form the overall energy saving capacity and structures of electricity production sources and heat energy supply sources to ensure their production. The authors propose a three-level model for forecasting the demand for energy resources (electricity, heat, fuel in total and its types: coal, natural gas and other fuels). This model uses a double agreement of forecasts: between the third (types of economic activity in regions), the second (regions) levels, and the subsequent agreement with the top (country) level. The calculations performed using this model demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. This model was tested on retrospective data with an error of less than 5%. Calculations under this model show a forecast of savings of 8.7 million tons of coal by 2040 due to structural and technological changes (2.272 million tons and 6.428 million tons, respectively). Reduction of coal consumption will reduce emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere (thousand tons): nitrogen oxides – 19.671; sulfur oxides – 295.06; carbon monoxide – 393.414; solid dispersed particles – 104.255; carbon dioxide – 5271.75.