Modification of GM(1,1) and its application in analysis of rock-slope deformation

Abstract

Rock slope is an unknown and complicated system; the GS (grey system) theory may release some of its implicated rules. This paper was aimed to discover the evolution rules of the complicated high rock-slope, using the GS Theory. The GM(1,1), deprived from the GS theory, was widely used in analysis of the ordinary time series, but it did not work well for time series with strong disorder or randomization. According to analysis, the modified GM(1,1) model was brought forward in the paper to fit the characteristic of the monitoring data of complicated high rock-slopes. Meanwhile, through the application in the analysis of rock-slope deformation, it was shown that promotion of precision of the modified GM(1,1) model was proved apparently. Finally, the result showed that the modified GM(1,1) model was fit for short-term direction prediction of the rock slopes in Jinping hydropower station, and helped to open out the developing pattern of the rock-slope stress, thus providing certain consultation and groundwork for further study of the rock slopes.