Abstract
(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that the increase in global surface temperature will continue in the coming decades [1]
It is vital to integrate these factors into the health risk assessment of future climate change, which can broaden our understanding of the emerging health risks caused by climate change
We found that heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) in Guangzhou, China would dramatically increase under all climate change scenarios and most General Circulation Models (GCMs) as the 21st century progresses
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that the increase in global surface temperature will continue in the coming decades [1]. The health risk assessment of future climate change could aid in improving the design of public health interventions and policies, preparedness of adaptation strategies, and healthcare planning. Numerous studies have assessed the heat-related mortality risks of future climate change in developed countries, but few were performed in developing countries where health vulnerability to climate change is greater [4,5]. In the process of assessing health risks, few studies have considered the factors affecting the vulnerability and susceptibility of humans to increasing temperature, such as population ageing and adaptation [6,7,8,9,10]. Ageing is an important determinant of human vulnerability to increasing temperature, as the elderly are more at risk from extreme heat events [11,12]. It is vital to integrate these factors into the health risk assessment of future climate change, which can broaden our understanding of the emerging health risks caused by climate change
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