Abstract
Quantifying the future health burden attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in China is challenging when jointly accounting for emissions, climate, and population changes. Future health burdens caused by PM2.5 and O3 in China remain largely understudied. In this study, the Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) was used to calculate the PM2.5 and O3 concentrations from 2010 to 2050 under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Then the PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in this period were projected. The resulting economic burdens, such as medical expenses (ME) and value of statistical life (VSL) in 2010–2050 attributed to the burdens of disease on PM2.5 and O3, were estimated. The results show that the PM2.5 concentrations by 2050 will change by -31.5% to 14.5% compared to those in 2010 among different RCP scenarios, resulting in -13.5% to 9.4% changes in the PM2.5-related mortality and -25.7% to 0.6% changes in the YLL. For O3, the concentration changes will vary from -13.3% to 3.7% by 2050, contributing to -26.9% to 13.1% changes in the O3-related mortality and -48.8% to 4.0% changes in the YLL. The lowest health impacts occur in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 for both pollutants. In 2010, the ME caused by PM2.5 and O3 is $6.3–6.5 billion, and the VSL is $112.1–114.9 billion, accounting for 2.9–3.0% of the total GDP ($3874 billion). By 2050, the ME and VSL will change -19.7% - 17.5% and -65.5% - 136.6%, respectively. This study suggested that future PM2.5 and O3 under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios can have significant health and economic benefits. However, given that the future population will be higher than the baseline in 2010, more aggressive air pollution mitigation measures are required for China.
Highlights
A large number of epidemiological studies had shown that fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) contributed to premature mortality from chronic or acute diseases, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases [1-6]
PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 6.3-11.1 μg/m3 under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios until 2050 from baseline, and O3 concentrations decreased by 3.7-6.1 ppb under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios
In the RCP4.5 scenario, the death toll caused by O3 (360 958) was 22.1% of that caused by PM2.5 (1 632 196), and O3 related medical expenses (ME)
Summary
A large number of epidemiological studies had shown that fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) contributed to premature mortality from chronic or acute diseases, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases [1-6]. 86% of the population in China was exposed to PM2.5 with a daily concentration higher than 75 μg/m3 of the Grade II Chinese Ambient. The adverse health impacts of PM2.5 and O3 pollution had placed a huge burden on economic development in China [11, 12]. Projecting future pollution changes and their impacts on health is challenging because of uncertainties in the changes of future emissions, climate and population. A few studies had attempted to quantify the health impacts under specific future policy scenarios. Maji et al (2018) [13] projected the potential health benefits by according to the concentration of PM2.5 in policy scenarios (WHO IT-1: 35 μg/m3, IT-2: 25 μg/m3, IT-3: 15 μg/m3 and AQG: 10 μg/m3 et al.). Maji et al (2018) [13] projected the potential health benefits by according to the concentration of PM2.5 in policy scenarios (WHO IT-1: 35 μg/m3, IT-2: 25 μg/m3, IT-3: 15 μg/m3 and AQG: 10 μg/m3 et al.). Wang et al (2019) [14]
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