Modern approaches to analysis of emergency risks in the Irkutsk Region

Abstract

The paper presents a retrospective analysis of the risks inherent in man-made and natural emergencies in the territory of the Irkutsk Region and assesses their level based on the modern risk analysis methodology. In the work, we used methods of statistical analysis. The processing and synthesis of statistical data was carried out as a whole for the Irkutsk Region and the Russian Federation for the period 2009-2019. A quantitative assessment of the risk of emergencies in the Irkutsk Region for the period 2009-2019 was carried out based on the number of emergencies and the number of injured in emergencies. We calculated the average statistical indicators of the recurrence of man-made and natural hazards, as well as the average indicators of collective risk, based on which the territory of the Irkutsk Region was assigned to the high-risk zone for emergencies of any origin. A comparison of the individual risks of death in emergencies and fires with the national indicators allowed them to be considered acceptable relative to the national level, while the individual risk of death in emergencies and fires exceeded the standard levels by about 4 times.